What did ATRI’s 2026 Critical Issues In The Trucking Industry Report find?
The American Transportation Research Institute released its 2026 Critical Issues in the Trucking Industry report on Oct. 18 at ATA’s Management Conference & Exhibition in Charlotte. More than 3,000 carrier executives, drivers, suppliers, and others weighed in. Fuel prices skyrocketed to the number one issue for 2026, up 17 spots from last year.
It’s no surprise; diesel is the first thing on everyone’s mind this year. Fleets everywhere got hit with fuel costs way over what they budgeted, and it’s hitting small and midsize fleets especially hard. Between record-high operating costs in 2025 and diesel prices that aren’t expected to come back down until 2028, last year’s budget won’t hold up.
Here’s how I’d apply the data from this report to your budget for next year.
Where do ATRI’s top industry issues hit your 2027 budget?
Fuel jumped 17 spots from last year to the #1 issue, and even drivers ranked it #1 for the first time, too. Unfortunately, high fuel prices aren’t the only item on the top 10 list that will cost fleets money in 2027.
| Issue (2026 rank) | Obvious Costs | What’s easy to miss | What to do in 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lawsuit abuse reform (#2) | Higher insurance premiums | In the biggest truck crash verdicts (over $10 million), most of the money isn’t for medical bills or lost wages. ATRI found that, on average, 84% of those awards are for pain and suffering or to punish the company. A crash can cost far more than the actual damage. The largest awards are also growing 5.7% a year, faster than inflation. | Budget for a higher premium at renewal, and keep crash records like video, maintenance logs, and driver files ready. |
| CSA (#3) | Fewer loads from brokers | A Supreme Court ruling this year means brokers can be sued for hiring an unsafe carrier, so more of them will check your CSA safety scores before giving you a load. | Check your scores before brokers do, and clean up violations now. FMCSA’s planned changes will make recent ones count more. |
| Insurance cost/availability (#4) | Higher premiums | Premiums for fleets under 100 trucks rose 27% to 50% from 2021 to 2024, per ATRI, and brokers are expected to require higher coverage limits. | Get quotes on higher limits now, so a new broker contract doesn’t catch you mid-year. |
| Driver shortage (#5), compensation (#9), retention (#10) | Pay, recruiting, and trucks with no drivers | ATRI found each extra $5,000 in annual pay was tied to 2.9 points lower driver turnover. Each extra 30 minutes waiting at a stop was tied to 5.4 points higher. | Count retention pay as a cost you avoid, and track how long drivers wait at customers. |
How much does a diesel price spike cost trucking fleets?
The massive spike in diesel prices was a surprise. It was a huge hammer for fleets to get hit with, and it’s not likely to end soon. EIA projects that prices won’t return to 2025 levels until 2028 at the earliest.
Given that diesel was under $3.50 a gallon to start 2026, who could’ve predicted the $6.53 record high in September?
As our CEO, Jeff Lynch, put it: “You budget for $3.75, and it’s $6.53. Doesn’t matter what else you’re doing. You’ve got to figure out your $3-a-gallon budget gap.”
So, how much does the $3 gap in expected vs. actual fuel prices really impact the budget? Let’s do some quick math.
According to ATRI’s Operational Costs of Trucking: 2026 Update, the average truck ran about 86,000 miles in 2025, averaging 7.4 miles per gallon. Annually, that’s roughly 11,600 gallons of diesel used per truck. That means, for every $1/gallon increase in fuel prices, fleets pay about $11,600 more in fuel per truck, per year.
The average diesel price in 2026 (so far) is $5.10, which is 39% higher than 2025, but that doesn’t even reflect the whole picture. Diesel prices hit record highs in September at $6.53/gallon (78% higher than 2025), then stayed over $6/gallon for six straight weeks, averaging $6.31/gallon (72% higher than 2025).
Here’s what that looks like for a fleet’s budget:
→ If a fleet set its 2026 fuel budget using 2025’s average $3.66/gallon, the expected annual fuel cost per truck is $42,500 ($3.66 * 11,600 gallons).
→ At this year’s average so far ($5.10/gallon), the actual fuel cost per truck is $59,100, a $16,700/truck increase.
→ During the six weeks above $6, each truck’s fuel cost is about $8,400 instead of the budgeted $4,900, a $3,500/truck increase.
For a 100-truck fleet, that’s a $4.25 million fuel budget on track to hit $5.91 million this year, $1.67 million over. In the six weeks above $6 alone, that fleet spent about $354,000 more than it budgeted.
How do high diesel prices impact other costs?
Diesel has a trickle effect on everything else in trucking. It’s more than “gosh, I’m paying a little bit more at the pump.” Operating costs go up, so fleets have to extend their trucks, and that puts more on the technicians. Each link in that chain adds more costs.
- Operating costs were already at record highs. Non-fuel costs were $1.854 per mile in 2025, up 4.2% and the highest in the 18 years ATRI has tracked it. Early 2026 data shows those costs still climbing.
- Fleets are keeping trucks longer. ATRI found carriers delayed replacement and ran each truck harder, from 82,677 miles a year to 85,991. That worked in 2025 because the average truck was still only 3.6 years old. Every year replacement gets pushed out, that cushion gets thinner, and repair and maintenance costs already rose 8.6%.
- Technicians are stretched. 65.5% of diesel shops were understaffed in 2025. Older trucks need more shop time, and there are fewer techs to give it.
- Drivers feel it, too. Driver Shortage and Driver Retention are both back in the top 10, and company drivers rank pay as their #1 concern.
How can fleets use ATRI’s data to build a better 2027 budget?
The one positive is that while this year’s price spikes hit without warning, next year, fleets can be more prepared and budget for it.
Based on this year’s numbers, these are the seven areas I’d fortify going into 2027:
- Fuel. Budget for high prices, and seek resilient fuel strategies. Talk to your fuel card provider about negotiated discounts at the major truck stop chains you already use, and ask your fuel supplier about fixed-price contracts or hedging for part of your volume. Few carriers hedge, but locking in a set price on even part of your fuel gives you a firm number to budget around. Plan fuel stops by route, too, so drivers fill up where your pricing is lowest.
- Cash flow. Fuel surcharges lag behind the pump. A June 2026 fuel cost report covered by CCJ found a 55-truck fleet on monthly surcharge resets left about $168,000 unrecovered during this spring’s spike, and more than $400,000 on quarterly resets. Push for shorter reset periods and lane-specific fuel indexes, then set aside cash for whatever gap is left.
- Insurance. Plan for a higher premium at renewal, and price higher coverage limits before a broker contract requires them.
- Safety scores. Investing in safety is a nonnegotiable. Check your CSA scores and clean up violations now. Brokers are using those scores to decide who gets loads.
- Equipment. Price another year of repairs and downtime on your oldest trucks against the cost of replacing them. Repair and maintenance already averages 21.5 cents a mile, and that number climbs as trucks age. If replacement is on the table, watch EPA’s proposed changes to the 2027 low-NOx rule. EPA estimates they could save up to $6,000 per new truck by shortening extended warranty requirements.
- Drivers. Budget to keep the drivers you have. With the driver shortage back on the list, they’ll be harder to replace in 2027, and every truck without a driver is a truck that isn’t making money.
- Idling. You can’t set the price of diesel, but you can control how many gallons you burn. Overnight idling, out-of-route miles, and empty miles all burn fuel without earning revenue, and at over $6/gallon, every one of those gallons costs far more than it did a year ago.
What can fleets control in 2027?
Every issue on ATRI’s list isn’t just painful; it’ll impact your 2027 budget. Thankfully, we have the data now so we can be better prepared for 2027.
At Idle Smart, we help fleets take control of their costs by protecting batteries, preventing fuel gelling, reducing idling, and extending equipment life. With diesel above $6 and trucks staying in service longer, those are costs you can start controlling today.
Talk to our team today to see how we can help you go into 2027 with fewer surprises.